Market Notes
Dated notes on what the market did and what it means. Where the price moved, why it probably moved, and how to read the next one.
14 piecesLast updated Aug 18, 2026Written by Jeff Dawson
- Market Notes3 min
What the summer did to the board, which was almost nothing
Three months of camps, trades and injuries, and 21 of 32 Super Bowl prices moved by a fifth of a percentage point or less. The stillness is the finding.
- Market Notes3 min
The Rams were the summer's only real move
Every other team on the board shifted less than 1.4 percentage points across three months. The Rams moved 3.9, and there is an unusually clean reason behind it.
- Market Notes3 min
Where the model and the market disagree most
Eight gaps on the 15 August board. We could explain three of them. Saying which five we could not is the more useful half.
- Market Theory3 min
What a frozen model is good for
Our projection has not been re-run since 16 May. That is a limitation worth stating plainly, and it does not make the number useless.