Market Notes
Dated notes on what the market did and what it means. Where the price moved, why it probably moved, and how to read the next one.
14 piecesLast updated Aug 18, 2026Written by Jeff Dawson
- Market Notes3 min
Where the model and the market disagree most
Eight gaps on the 15 August board. We could explain three of them. Saying which five we could not is the more useful half.
- Market Theory3 min
A win total is two decisions, not one
Every other futures market asks whether something will happen. A win total asks which number, and at what price. Collapsing the two is how a bettor ends up holding a position they did not choose.
- Market Notes3 min
Eight win totals moved a full game
Championship prices sat still all summer. Win totals did not, and every one of the eight moves has a reported cause behind it.