Market Notes
Dated notes on what the market did and what it means. Where the price moved, why it probably moved, and how to read the next one.
14 piecesLast updated Aug 18, 2026Written by Jeff Dawson
- Market Notes3 min
What the summer did to the board, which was almost nothing
Three months of camps, trades and injuries, and 21 of 32 Super Bowl prices moved by a fifth of a percentage point or less. The stillness is the finding.
- Market Theory3 min
A win total is two decisions, not one
Every other futures market asks whether something will happen. A win total asks which number, and at what price. Collapsing the two is how a bettor ends up holding a position they did not choose.
- Market Notes3 min
Eight win totals moved a full game
Championship prices sat still all summer. Win totals did not, and every one of the eight moves has a reported cause behind it.