Market Notes
Dated notes on what the market did and what it means. Where the price moved, why it probably moved, and how to read the next one.
- Market Notes3 min
Where the model and the market disagree most
Eight gaps on the 15 August board. We could explain three of them. Saying which five we could not is the more useful half.
- Market Theory3 min
A win total is two decisions, not one
Every other futures market asks whether something will happen. A win total asks which number, and at what price. Collapsing the two is how a bettor ends up holding a position they did not choose.
- Market Notes3 min
Where the Super Bowl board is widest
Five books, one championship market, and a 233% difference in what the same position pays.
- Market Theory3 min
Why the Gap Exists
A number moves all week and the team it describes never changes. What closing line value measures, and why it is knowable before the season is played.
- Market Notes2 min
Every board sums past one hundred
Add up what a sportsbook says about the Super Bowl and the answer comes to 124%. The extra is the price of admission.