Market Notes
Dated notes on what the market did and what it means. Where the price moved, why it probably moved, and how to read the next one.
- Market Theory3 min
What a frozen model is good for
Our projection has not been re-run since 16 May. That is a limitation worth stating plainly, and it does not make the number useless.
- Market Theory4 min
When books tie, and what our own sorting hides
On nearly half the Super Bowl board more than one book holds the best price. Here is how we pick between them, and why that choice is not a fact about sportsbooks.
- Market Theory3 min
The same view costs less in a smaller market
A book's margin scales with the number of outcomes it has to price. The same opinion costs roughly three times as much to hold on the Super Bowl board as on a division board.
- Market Theory3 min
Nobody sharpens a number nobody bets
Five books land within a few percent of each other at the top of the board and twice as far apart at the bottom. The gap measures attention, not carelessness.
- Market Theory3 min
The division board is the one no book owns
On most futures markets one book holds the best price more often than the rest. On the division board four books are within two of each other, and that is structural.
- Market Theory3 min
A win total is two decisions, not one
Every other futures market asks whether something will happen. A win total asks which number, and at what price. Collapsing the two is how a bettor ends up holding a position they did not choose.
- Market Theory3 min
Why the Gap Exists
A number moves all week and the team it describes never changes. What closing line value measures, and why it is knowable before the season is played.