Market Notes
Dated notes on what the market did and what it means. Where the price moved, why it probably moved, and how to read the next one.
- Market Notes3 min
What the summer did to the board, which was almost nothing
Three months of camps, trades and injuries, and 21 of 32 Super Bowl prices moved by a fifth of a percentage point or less. The stillness is the finding.
- Market Notes3 min
The Rams were the summer's only real move
Every other team on the board shifted less than 1.4 percentage points across three months. The Rams moved 3.9, and there is an unusually clean reason behind it.
- Market Notes3 min
Where the model and the market disagree most
Eight gaps on the 15 August board. We could explain three of them. Saying which five we could not is the more useful half.
- Market Notes3 min
One book gets you the best price half the time
The best-covering sportsbook on the current Super Bowl board still leaves a reader short on sixteen of thirty-two teams, and the shortfall averages about a quarter of the payout.
- Market Notes3 min
Eight win totals moved a full game
Championship prices sat still all summer. Win totals did not, and every one of the eight moves has a reported cause behind it.
- Market Notes3 min
Where the Super Bowl board is widest
Five books, one championship market, and a 233% difference in what the same position pays.
- Market Notes2 min
Every board sums past one hundred
Add up what a sportsbook says about the Super Bowl and the answer comes to 124%. The extra is the price of admission.